However, I personally would give one note of caution, and that is that firms which do not have a strong balance sheet may not survive the likely challenging period ahead in the near term in order to have a long term future.

What I am doing myself is choosing firms with a solid history with respect to earnings, a reasonably sound business model and most importantly, a strong balance sheet. These are the firms which are likely to survive the anticipated lean times and then be positioned to take advantage of the anticipated recovery when it eventually occurs.

Andrew’s last blog post..How healthy is Apple’s disclosure?

I am overwhelmed by all the media hype of fear and how many people are taking “chicken little stuff” and working others into a lather. The failure CEO’s taking my money and other tax payers money is very alarming to me –

That those who need re balancing themselves are getting the money to fix the mess? What is this?

The whining about responsibility is nasty….
One day at a time and chop wood and carry water…
I read every word and contemplated…it was very clear and I appreciated that thank you

Patricia’s last blog post..Me vs. Them

@ Kent – The honest truth is that I wanted to see a year from now if my predictions are even close. But you are right, it was a temptation I gave into.

And I am actually acting in direct opposition to my predictions. I am leaving a house that I should be staying in and will probably take a loss on it. If I truly believed in my predictions I would probably stay in it until the housing market recovered.

Here is my argument for the Dow crossing 10,000. As I said, the money is “in hiding”. Many investors, both institutional and individual, are holding onto cash, gold, foreign stocks, you name it. At any point during the year one of those assets could drop enough to “scare” people back into American stocks. A significant increase in the Dow could cause people to “rush back in” and cause it to surge over 10,000 again.

I guess I just wanted to see how close I could predict the most likely scenario. We will see in another year.

@ Bunny – Im sorry, I think you misunderstood me. I was making the case that immigration is good. For most of the past century immigration levels were low but are now at a near all time high. I just read that 2000 was the first time immigration reached the same level as in 1900. I was mainly making the case that immigrants will help replace Baby Boomers as they retire. I think I will rewrite that section as I realize I got a little sloppy at the end.

Cheers,
Jeremy

Bunny got Blog’s last blog post..Insights From Blogging, Knowledge For Life

Could you make an equally intelligent argument against every single one of your predictions? I’m sure you could… Could the Dow Jones cross 10,000 in 2009? Sure it could. Now make a case just how and why that might transpire.

It is wise to practice your own “counter-argument” or dialectic with yourself. For example, your human tendency is to confirm your own pre-conceptions (this is called “confirmation bias”). It appears you’ve already made a case for your pre-conceptions; now make a case against them. You may be able to form a logical basis from which to act (or not act).

I have struggled with my own temptations to make economic predictions (but I try to stop myself from doing so) because one thing I’ve learned in my years of investment advisory work is that no one knows what tomorrow will bring.

“The difference between what the most and the least learned people know is inexpressibly trivial in relation to that which is unknown.” ~ Albert Einstein

*smiles*
Michele

Michele’s last blog post..News: Alltop Adds HealingwithJuices.com to Their Health Section

@ George – I am a student of the world my friend and I am in constant pursuit of the Renaissance ideal.

@ Tom – You know, I should have mentioned this. The dollar will remain strong because every other economy is faltering relatively more than the US economy. Oil will rise a little but not much. June delivery is scheduled for $50/barrel. That will bring us up close to the $2 mark for summer, but it should not go much over, if at all, this year.

@ Michele – haha. I had the same expectations too! I figured there would be less shoppers. What you have to take into account was that we just went through the holiday season, AND many people who would shop in higher priced stores have started shopping in lower priced stores which makes them seemingly crowded. But there is less consumption for sure, otherwise we wouldn’t see many of these companies going out of business.

@ Ian – You know, the Euro is holding steady right now, and its the British pound that is taking a pounding. (pun intended) I hear you guys may start using the Euro by 2012. From what I know, Poland has a relatively stable economy that shouldn’t be effected by too much of what many parts of the world are going through. However, if your government does what the rest of the world is doing it may set itself up for a period of inflation. In any case, you should keep me updated. I love to hear how each country is dealing with its own economic situations.

Celes | EmbraceLiving.Net’s last blog post..Goal Achievement: Review

I am going to bookmark and stumble this bad bear because it is the most rational and clear headed explanation of economic factors I’ve ever seen.

Oh, and is there anything you DON’T do?

Cheers,

George

Tumblemoose’s last blog post..The long and the short of it